December 5th 2005 I offered a post on Interverbal, that contained a number of guesses of how the mercury etiology of autism advocates would react if, come 2007, the CDDS data weren’t decreasing. And so, just for fun lets see how I did!
Predictions:
1) Ignore it.
By and large we hear silence on this one. That’s a hit.
2) Invoke the possibility that the vaccines caused autism in a very small (compared to the whole) subset of children. The subset is too small to be noticed in the data.
Yep, I am two for two so far.
3) Call it a statistical blip.
Haven’t seen this one, so that’s one miss. 4) Say that it will take more time to see the effects.
Yes sir, I have seen that one.
5) Invoke other things that could take of the slack e.g. "flu shot, dental fillings, out gassing of coal run power plants".
Ding!Ding!Ding! [Confetti and streamers burst forth] We have a winner!!!
6) Present a new theory that involves accumulated mercury in parents slowing having been built up and now being manifested irregardless of the removal of thimerosal causing vaccines.
Haven’t seen it for thimerosal specifically, so that’s a miss.
7) Accuse the DDS of altering the data sets due to pressure from the vaccine manufacturers.
Miss,
8) Take a new interest on how the DDS really isn't epidemiology and was never supposed to have been used that way.
That is a big old hit! That issue, was a major contention point in some internet discussion recently.
9) Take a new interest in the fact that correlation isn’t causation.
Nope, that is a miss.
So, 5 hits, 4 misses, heck, with odds like that I could have my own psychic TV show! “The Other Side of Reality with your host Interverbal!”
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